• Premier League, 2011-12

Manchester United to edge out Chelsea

Simon Cambers September 16, 2011

If we didn't know it already, last weekend's set of results proved that picking winners in football, especially big-priced ones, is a tricky business. The key is doing the research and then being happy with your decision - if it doesn't work out then at least you will accept the outcome a little more easily than if you'd made some rash choices.

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This weekend is no different but there are a couple of big matches that capture the attention immediately, none more so than Manchester United at home to Chelsea on Sunday. Both sides have begun the season strongly, but United have been on fire and it will take an enormous effort from Chelsea to stop them winning this match.

United have won four of their past five Premier League matches against Chelsea at Old Trafford and could hardly be in better form. They rested a stack of players in midweek Champions League action, including Ashley Young, and will fancy their chances of striking an early psychological blow in the title race.

While United have smashed in 18 goals in their four league matches so far this season while Chelsea have managed just seven. They have yet to get the best out of Fernando Torres, although the arrival of Juan Mata may help their cause.

They also rested players in midweek - including John Terry and Frank Lampard - and there is no doubt they will be up for the battle. But at Old Trafford, with United and in particular, Wayne Rooney, in such great form, I can't see them getting anything. At 5/6 with bet365, United have to be the bet of the weekend.

This weekend's set of fixtures do not make it too easy as far as weekend punt is concerned but there may just be some value in taking Wigan to win at Everton.

Everton are in real trouble right now. With no money to spend and their best players moving on, it's tough to see them having a good season. Davis Moyes really has his hands full and they need to start winning soon.

Being at home this weekend should help but I just have a sneaking feeling that Wigan - one of the most inconsistent sides around - may just spring a surprise at Goodison. Roberto Martinez's side are frustrating to rely on and can't be often trusted but they do have a habit of playing well when you don't expect them to.

There probably won't be a better time to play Everton all season before their team spirit lifts their performances so at 6/1 with bet365, the bet of the weekend has to be them to win at Goodison.

We've come close to landing an early season treble with two wins out of three a couple of times so hopefully we can go all the way this weekend and I am pinning my faith in Arsenal, Wolves and Manchester City to get the job done.

Arsenal's confidence is growing with every match. Their win over Swansea last weekend righted the ship and they played very well in Germany against Borussia Dortmund in midweek so winning at bottom club Blackburn ought to be within their capabilities.

Bet365 make them 10/11 to do it and they can start the weekend treble. Manchester City have won four out of four and I see no reason why they won't make it five by landing win odds of 4/7 at Fulham, who are usually strong at home but who are struggling.

Finally, Wolves can get the better of QPR with the help of home advantage, against opponents who look like they will struggle for goals this year. Mick McCarthy's side are 10/11 and if you put all three together, you get a treble that works out at a fraction under 5/1. Good luck!

Running total after weekend four = -3.95pts)

(Based on: 3pts stake for bet of weekend and 1pt per weekend punt and weekend treble

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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