• Premier League, 2011-12

Norwich to beat Sunderland misfits

James Vaughan shows the kind of battling spirit Norwich will need against Sunderland this weekend © Getty Images

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With the exception of Manchester United, there seems to be a pattern developing in the Premier League this season; namely, trust (almost) no one. Teams look great one moment and average the next, which leads to shock results and makes our life that bit more difficult.

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However, there is one benefit of an inconsistent set of teams; the bookies don't know what's going to happen either and therefore they will be more opportunities than usual to find some value in among the dross. It's just a matter of picking the right ones.

United did us a favour last weekend as they landed the bet of the weekend and that's good news for the overall running total, for it's the bread and butter. The weekend punt and the weekend treble will yield big odds when they come good, but the bet of the weekend is what keeps the fund operating.

With so many of the bigger, more reliable teams at home this weekend, picking a bet of the weekend - what we'd like to think of as a dead cert, if such a thing exists, is a little trickier than some weeks, but I fancy Norwich to beat Sunderland at Carrow Road.

Paul Lambert's Norwich got their first win of the Premier League last weekend and they will be fancying their chances of getting the better of a Sunderland side that have misfired badly so far despite another summer of relatively big spending.

Steve Bruce splashed out on a stack of players but as yet they are far from gelling and away from home, it might be hard for them to find the winning habit this time. They are not a bad side, on paper, and in theory there is very little to separate these two. If you look back to their last league clashes, albeit that they were a few years ago now, you'll find only one goal separating them in the past four - all won 1-0 by the home side. It's 6/4 with bet365 that Norwich win it, and that's the bet of the weekend.

Now having said everything I did about Manchester United being the only really reliable side at the moment - and despite losing when backing against them already this season - they face a difficult trip to a hugely in-form Stoke City side.

Tony Pulis's men have built up a reputation for being hard to beat on their own turf, with their physical style unsettling the teams who like to have a bit of time on the ball. Fifth in the table, with two wins and just one loss from their first five matches, they now have momentum and confidence, which could make United's task more difficult.

Betting bullets

• Bet of the weekend: Norwich City to beat Sunderland - 6/4 bet365
• The weekend punt: Stoke City to beat or draw with Manchester United - 4/1 bet365
• The weekend treble: Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool to win - 2/1 bet365

I am too chicken to say that Stoke can win it, at 11/2 with bet365, but if you look back at their previous meetings at Stoke, though United won in each of the past three years (and all six matches against them in that time), they did so by only the odd goal each time. They have ridden their luck there at times and I can see it being a close match once more.

But rather than take the 11/2 on the win, let's share the money between that and a bet on the draw, at 3/1. If you split your stake, you effectively get just over 4/1 that they either hold United or beat them, which is pretty decent, and that is the weekend punt.

And so to the weekend treble. Instead of chasing big odds this weekend, I am going to suggest we go with the big guns and trust in them (I know, it's always a risk) to get the job done.

Arsenal have had problems against Bolton in the past but they are picking things up slowly and should be too good for Owen Coyle's men at the Emirates Stadium while Manchester City - who love playing at home - should be too strong for Everton. Both those two teams are 4/9 to win this weekend.

To complete the treble, throw in Liverpool, who will be eager to return to winning ways after their worst league performance of the season last weekend at Tottenham. The Reds take on Wolves at Anfield and though Mick McCarthy's men actually won their last season, this is a different Liverpool side and I expect them to win comfortably at 4/11.

Those three winning would give us a treble that works out at 2/1 and while it won't break the banks, it will at least top up our own betting funds. Good luck!

Running total after weekend four = -3.45pts)

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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