• Premier League, 2011-12

Blackburn can upset rattled Man City

Simon Cambers September 29, 2011

This weekend will tell us an awful lot about the spirit within Manchester City and perhaps how far they might go this season. The Carlos Tevez saga, which seems to take another twist every week, has reached boiling point and it will be up to the other City players to show that their minds are focused on the job at hand.

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That might not be that easy, coming off the back of a Champions League defeat in Munich and with a trip to a talented Blackburn Rovers side facing them this weekend. On any normal day, you would expect City to win this comfortably but the fact it's another away trip, that Blackburn are actually not bad and in the wake of Tevez's actions means nothing can be taken for granted.

The performance of the brilliant Sergio Aguero will doubtless be watched closely for as a fellow Argentina player, he has been more sympathetic to Tevez's cause than most. His influence on the side has been as big as anyone's except David Silva so he will need to be at 100 percent.

I thought Blackburn were excellent against Arsenal (who were also very good in patches) and they will go at City whenever they have a chance. My thinking on this is that it's probably the best time to play City and though Blackburn have some injuries, 5/1 with bet365 is too big a price to resist. Let's make Rovers the weekend punt and see how they do.

Sunderland have been all over the place this season, hammering Stoke 4-0 at home but losing almost everywhere else, including at Norwich last weekend. But just as Norwich were the bet of the weekend seven days ago, so Sunderland can take over that mantle this time round.

The fact is that Steve Bruce bought loads of players in the summer and they have yet to gel. But when they do, the quality is good enough to be in the top half of the table. At home they are always difficult to beat and in truth, they almost nicked an equaliser last weekend.

When they get it right they are good in attack and robust everywhere else and if anything the absence of Titus Bramble this weekend may just help solidify the defence.

But the biggest thing that makes Sunderland worth backing this time is how bad West Brom look. Roy Hodgson's side have scored just two goals in their first six matches and already look condemned to a season fighting off the prospect of relegation.

I just don't see them scoring unless Sunderland gift them a goal (which of course is highly possible) and that gives the home side a huge chance to win it and right their ship. At 5/4 with bet365 they look overpriced and they are the bet of the weekend.

After a full house of wins last weekend we are now firmly in profit for the season so let's try to keep it that way. But unlike last weekend, where with the weekend treble we really kept it safe, I am going for three draws this time.

Liverpool are on the right track to have a good season and could well win at Goodison Park this weekend but Everton were good against Manchester City last weekend and will make life difficult for them this time. Take bet365's 21/10.

A few weeks ago you would have happily picked Tottenham to beat Arsenal at White Hart Lane but the Gunners are beginning to get things right, as they were always going to, and these two can cancel each other out at 12/5.

Finally, Stoke City have been playing some of their best ever football in the Premier League in the first six games of the season but they face a tricky trip to Swansea City.

Swansea are no world-beaters but they are tough to beat at home (one win, two draws, no defeats), so the draw looks tasty at 9/4.

Throw those three together and you get a treble that works out at a massive 33/1, which would go a long way to ensuring a profitable season before September is even out. Good luck!

Running total after weekend four = +5.65pts)

(Based on: 3pts stake for bet of weekend and 1pt per weekend punt and weekend treble

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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