Is Tiger Woods now back on the path to greatness?
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Click here to bet on the Fry's Open and Madrid Masters at bet365
The media spotlight rarely illuminates the PGA Tour Fall Series - but at this week's Fry's Open it's all change: Tiger Woods is back.
The world No. 51, competing for the first time since the US PGA Championship in August, enters with expectation crackling around him. He has a new caddie, having poached Joe LaCava from Dustin Johnson, and he fired a course record 62 at Medallist in Florida over the weekend.
Inevitably, there's speculation that he has turned a corner, and will now begin to clamber up the rankings. It's hard to see him plummeting further over the weekend, given that it's an unheralded field he's up against - but at 13/2 I'm not sure the price is quite tempting enough.
CordeValle, host of the Fry's Open, is a course with huge greens, so it helps if you're playing approach shots from the short grass. If you're hacking out of the rough, the ball isn't going to be landing close enough to the hole consistently, meaning you'll struggle to make birdies.
Williams' wager
- Chad Campbell E/W to win the Fry's Open - 33/1 at bet365
Alvaro Quiros E/W to win the Madrid Masters - 28/1 at bet365
Woods has never been noted for his driving accuracy, even during his glory years, but in 2011 he has been wilder than ever, and finds himself 184th on the PGA Tour driving accuracy stats, having hit less than half of his fairways this season.
His putting hasn't been good enough to get himself out of predicaments, either: Woods is 60th on the strokes gained scoreboard when it comes to the short stick.
For me, there's more value to be had in Chad Campbell, who is being offered at 33/1. Six of his past 11 rounds have been in the 60s, he was 13th at the tournament last year - and, most interestingly, on average only two players on Tour hit their approach shots closer to the hole.
Meanwhile, over on the European Tour, world No. 1 Luke Donald aims to extend his lead at the top of the Race to Dubai standings when he tees up at the Madrid Masters. Donald is the defending champion, and says the Spanish tournament is where his ascent to the top rank began.
"Madrid last year was the start of a great run and I felt indebted to show my face", he said of the event with a top prize of £144,000. Donald will be in the mix, no doubt about that, but at 9/2 I'd be tempted to swerve the Englishman.
It's at a new venue - El Encín Golf Hotel - so there's no course form to go on, which isn't particularly helpful. Yet it's a long track, so I fancy one of the lustier hitters to triumph - perhaps Alvaro Quiros on home turf at 28/1.
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.
Josh Williams
Josh Williams is an assistant editor of ESPN.co.uk
