• Football, Euro 2012 qualifying

England can win in Montenegro

Simon Cambers October 6, 2011

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England are in Montenegro on Friday night for their last match - and the penultimate round of matches - in the Euro 2012 qualifying campaign, needing just a point to book their place in Poland and Ukraine next summer.

It's a tough match for Fabio Capello's side, with the stadium in Pogorica sure to offer an intimidating atmosphere. But England have performed superbly away from home so far in this campaign and there is no reason not to expect them to at least get the draw they need, or perhaps the win.

It was interesting to hear Fabio Capello explain this week that England are more effective away from home because they can use their pace to get behind teams who feel the urge to move forward and press because they are at home. What he was effectively saying is that England are a side at their best on the counter-attack, right now, and that's why they must have a good chance of another win on Friday night.

Bet365 make Montenegro 9/2 to win the match, with England 4/6 and the draw 5/2. It should not be forgotten that Montenegro embarrassed England with a 0-0 draw at Wembley in this campaign and they have a few of their better players back, having missed the stalemate in England.

Home advantage will surely inspire them as they try to keep alive their hopes of winning the group (they could top it by winning on Friday and then beating Switzerland on Tuesday) but I just feel that what happened at Wembley was an aberration - Montenegro played out of their minds on the day and England were woeful. That won't happen again and England, who have won all three of their away games, can make it four out of four at 4/6.

Serbia's need is the greater

Italy have been one of the best sides of the qualifying campaign, wrapping up their place in next summer's finals with plenty of room to spare, something that has not always been the case with them in the past. They look to have a nice balance to their side and they could be a side to really look out for next summer.

But at this stage of the qualifying campaign it is often as much about necessity as skill and Serbia's need is the greater as the two teams meet in Belgrade on Friday night. Victory will give the Serbians the runner-up spot and a place in the play-offs, so they will be going all out for the win, while Italy could easily be forgiven if they take their foot off the pedal.

When the two sides met in Italy in October, some nasty scenes in the crowd caused the match to be abandoned and the home side were awarded a 3-0 win. The atmosphere in Belgrade is likely to be edgy, to say the least, but as long as it stays the right side of the law, it should help Serbia to produce their best.

Italy have named a strong squad but they also have a couple of key injuries with Mario Balotelli, Giampaolo Pazzini and Domenico Criscito all out and Giuseppe Rossi doubtful. Serbia don't score too many goals but I am going to resist the temptation to overcomplicate it and stick with a simple tip on Serbia to win it, on offer at 5/4 with bet365.

Best of the rest

If Serbia don't beat Italy, then Estonia, Slovenia and even Northern Ireland could pip them to the runners-up spot in their group. Estonia are leading the chase but I think they could come unstuck on a cold, damp night in Northern Ireland, who look a decent price with bet365 at even money.

Wales have struggled in England's group but they are better than their results suggest and actually pushed England hard at Wembley last time out. At home, they can threaten the best sides and I can see them causing a shock by beating Switzerland, at a very big looking 10/3 with bet365.

Finally, France will surely beat Albania with the aid of home advantage but they are not exactly full of goals. In fact they have not scored more than two goals in any of their qualifying games so let's say there will be fewer than three goals in the match, at 43/40.

Put those three together in a treble and you would get a return of 17/1, which would be rather nice indeed. Good luck!

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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