Gary Woodland has already won on the PGA Tour this season
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Click here to bet on the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic at bet365
Luke Donald's grip on a historic money-list triumph is loosening, and he now needs to produce something special at the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic, the final event of the season.
World No. 1 Donald is aiming to become the first man to top both European and PGA Tour cash lists, but knows he needs at least a second-place finish to usurp Webb Simpson, the man currently at the summit. Even a runner-up effort may not be enough, depending on how Simpson fares.
If Donald wins, Simpson would need to finish second on his own; if Donald fails to win, Simpson can keep him at bay with a three-way tie for seventh or solo eighth.
Ahead of the battle, Simpson has fired a warning to his rival: "Finishing second [at the McGladrey Classic last weekend] is going to make it a lot harder for Luke. But I'm sure he's going to play well. He's played well most every week this year. I still wouldn't be surprised if I have a little work to do next week."
Williams' wagers
- Gary Woodland E/W to win - 20/1 at bet365
Justin Rose E/W - 14/1 at bet365
The event will be played across the Magnolia and Palm Courses (54 holes at Magnolia) at the Disney Resort and, with the weather set fair, aggressive players who opt to pepper the pin are expected to shine: look at monster-hitter Robert Garrigus, who triumphed last year.
Although Donald has excelled pretty much everywhere in recent months, with 13 top tens from 16 starts, this doesn't seem the sort of track that suits his game - it's no surprise he hasn't played the tournament since 2003. At odds of 8/1, I'm more than happy to pass.
I can see the winner firing something seriously low - 20-under might not be enough for victory - so a look at the birdie average stats should prove instructive. Gary Woodland, the world No. 42, lies 16th in the list and has finished at least 25th every time he's played since mid-August. For that reason, odds of 20/1 are really singing to me, even though it's his first appearance at the tournament.
Elsewhere, it's hard to argue with Justin Rose's record at the event: one third, two fourths - and the course record at Palm (a 60 in 2006). Rose enters with confidence, having won the BMW Championship and finished sixth at The Barclays, so 14/1 odds appeal.
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
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Josh Williams
Josh Williams is an assistant editor of ESPN.co.uk
