• Premier League, 2011-12

Newcastle look a big price

Even the loss of Demba Ba to the Africa Cup of Nations should not stop Newcastle from beating QPR this weekend © PA Photos

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Newcastle United showed just how good they can be with a fabulous victory over Manchester United last time out so it's a little bit of a surprise to see them priced at 4-5 by bet365 to beat a hugely inconsistent Queens Park Rangers side this weekend.

On form, that would be a fair price if the match was played at Loftus Road but it is at Newcastle's home ground of St James' Park, which has been a pretty good hunting ground for them this season, with five wins, three draws and just two losses in their 10 games there.

Demba Ba is enjoying the season of his life but even with his absence at the Africa Cup of Nations, it's hard to see a QPR defence that has leaked 35 goals, including 18 on the road, from stopping him and Newcastle this weekend. Alan Pardew would have earmarked this is as another home banker and at 4-5 I have to agree. The Magpies are the bet of the weekend.

Betting bullets

• Bet of the weekend: Newcastle United to beat QPR - 4/5 bet365
• The weekend punt: Blackburn Rovers to beat Fulham - 15/8 bet365
• The weekend treble: Liverpool and Arsenal to win; Aston Villa to draw with Everton - 15/2 bet365

The weekend punt is usually all about chasing those big odds, sensing the value that the bookmakers have left. But this weekend, it could be about a price that is not overly big, but still a result that could be considered a shock.

Steve Kean has survived in his job thanks to a combination of trust from the owners and a good bit of luck, no doubt, but his Blackburn side can do his job prospects some good by securing only their fourth win of the season.

Two of their three wins have come at Ewood Park, while their incredible 3-2 win at Manchester United really was the result of the season. Their opponents this weekend are Fulham and though Martin Jol's side are decent at home, they are poor away and a long trip up north could see them return empty handed yet again.

Blackburn have beaten Fulham in two of the past four meetings at home, and drawn the other two, so at 15/8 with bet365, they are the weekend punt.

And so to the weekend treble. Liverpool should be buoyed by their midweek win at Manchester City in the first leg of the Carling Cup semi-finals. Though the visit of Stoke City offers the prospect of another home draw, the Reds look to be improving all the time and since they need points in the chase for fourth spot, they can lead the treble by winning at 4/9.

Swansea City have a strong home record but Arsenal are a side in form, with Thierry Henry's presence bound to inspire the others, and they can win at 4/5, while I fancy a draw in the Aston Villa-Everton match, at 9/4. Put those three together and you get a tasty 15/2. Good luck!

RUNNING TOTAL (as of December 23): -21.96pts
(Based on: 3pts stake for bet of weekend and 1pt each per weekend punt and weekend treble)

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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