• Australian Open

Time right for Djokovic and Clijsters

Simon Cambers January 14, 2011

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The Australian Open, which begins on Monday, is traditionally the grand slam where a surprise champion or finalist is most likely, due to its place in the calendar as much as anything. But with the big guns in ominous form, don't expect that to be the case this year.

The bookies can't split world No. 1 Rafael Nadal and defending champion Roger Federer at the top of the betting, making them both 15/8, while Kim Clijsters is favourite to win her first Australian Open title, but the chasing pack are close behind.

If Nadal wins the title, he will hold all four grand slam titles at the same time - the first man to do so since Rod Laver completed the second of his Grand Slams in 1969. Laver insists that a true grand slam is when all four are won in a calendar year but I think there is no difference and who could deny Nadal his place in history if he wins?

The Spaniard began 2011 by beating Federer in the final of an exhibition and though he got sick in Doha, I would not worry about that too much. He has had plenty of time to shake that off and the real question with Rafa is, is he fully fit? If he is, then he deserves to be favourite on his own for his superior fitness and strength and his incredible will to win make him so difficult to beat, especially over five sets.

Federer picked up his form again at the end of last year, when he won the ATP World Tour Finals in London, and his record in Melbourne proves he should never be written off there. The Swiss looks fit and is confident so it would be no surprise should he do well again. However, something tells me he may just find it more difficult this time round.

One of the main reasons could be the form of Novak Djokovic. The world No. 3 is a player transformed since last summer, beating Federer in the semis of the US Open before pushing Nadal hard in the final. Then he went on to win the Davis Cup final for Serbia - a win that has done more for his confidence than anything else. No one, not even Nadal, looks fitter than Djokovic right now and the fact that he is in Federer's half, I think, improves his chances. He enjoys playing Federer and knows he can hurt him whereas over five sets in a grand slam, denying Nadal is more difficult.

Since he is in the other half to Nadal, though, this means Djokovic is a great each-way bet, with half the odds to reach the final. I just sense that everything is coming right for him at the right time and I can see him going all the way, and let's not forget that he did win the title in Melbourne in 2008.

That doesn't mean that Andy Murray (6/1) won't have another good year in Melbourne, after reaching the final 12 months ago. The Scot looks in good nick after another winter training camp in Florida and will have been relieved that the draw didn't make him have to beat each of the world's top three to get to the final.

He should cruise through to the last 16 and though things get tougher from the quarters onwards, where in-form Swede Robin Soderling (18/1) may be waiting, he will fancy his chances of getting through to the semis, where Nadal is the likely opponent. Murray always plays well against Nadal so he won't fear him, even if he is full of respect.

I just can't see the title being won by anyone outside the top five and though someone else may sneak into a semi-final, the big five are so dominant that it would be a shock if it was not one of them who was standing on the podium at the end. And of those five, certainly at the odds, Djokovic is the best price.

Clijsters a worthy favourite

The absence of Serena Williams through injury certainly means that the women's tournament is even more open than usual. However, Kim Clijsters has to be a deserving favourite because every time she plays her best, she wins.

The former world No. 1 could regain top spot by winning in Melbourne for the first time and she has already shown good enough form this year to suggest that she is the one to beat. As she has proven at the US Open in each of the past two years, she is at her very best on hard courts and it just seems like she has another gear at times.

Last year, she looked great until she was hammered by Nadia Petrova. The Russian played her best but something went wrong with the Clijsters game on the day that even she could not explain. The two could meet in round four again this time and I am sure Cllijsters would love to put the record straight.

The other Belgian former world No. 1, Justine Henin, also has a good draw and is equally dangerous, if not quite as consistent. She is also coming off a six-month break because of a fractured elbow so it all depends how she copes mentally, as much as physically.

World No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki appears primed to win her first grand slam title but I am a little worried by her poor form in the two weeks beforehand. The Dane has changed to a new racket, which is incredible so close to a grand slam, and appears to be struggling with it. At the moment there are just too many reasons to avoid her.

World No. 2 Vera Zvonareva reached two grand slam finals in 2010 and is capable of going all the way here but I don't like her draw. The dangerous Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is lurking in her quarter and if she gets to the semis, she'll have to beat Clijsters, probably, to get to the final.

Venus Williams has rarely performed well in Melbourne and just doesn't look that interested anymore, while home hope Sam Stosur has a very tough draw and also the pressure of a nation on her shoulders, a situation that often causes her problems.

Outside the top few in the betting, I quite like the chances of Victoria Azarenka, who appears to be coming of age. The Belarussian is in the better half of the draw (away from Clijsters) and on form, she could come right the way through to the semis, where it's anyone's game.

At 14/1, she could offer some decent each-way value, so why not take her as well as Clijsters, and hope they both make it to the final, where you couldn't lose.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondant

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