• World Cup, 2011

Bookies predict India-Sri Lanka final

Simon Cambers March 26, 2011

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Well, well. So South Africa choke and England fade away with the kind of performance that we thought was in the past.

So India take on Pakistan in one semi-final and New Zealand face Sri Lanka in the other and with all due respect to both Pakistan and New Zealand, the chances are that we will be having an India-Sri Lanka final.

That's certainly what the bookies think, with bet365 restoring India to favouritism at 13/8, with Sri Lanka second at 15/8. Pakistan are 4/1 chances and New Zealand the outsiders at 7/1.

Those people who took the 22/1 on offer on New Zealand winning the tournament will be getting very excited after their win over South Africa and rightly so. While South Africa choked as they have done so often in the past, New Zealand competed brilliantly for everything and fully deserved their win in the end.

Sri Lanka demolished England and they will be favourites to see off New Zealand but you write off the Black Caps at your peril and you won't find me doing anything of the sort. This is their sixth World Cup semi-final and if they play to their strengths, batting first, making a defendable score and then fighting for their lives, anything could happen.

In the second semi-final, the atmosphere in Mohali is going to be something else altogether and if Pakistan play their absolute best, then there is no doubt they can win as well. But India are at home, playing well and deserve favouritism. It's going to be a corker.

Original preview

The 10th one-day World Cup begins on Saturday with 14 teams bidding to take the trophy and Australia trying to win it for the fourth straight time. But home advantage looks likely to be key this time around and that means India and Sri Lanka could be fighting it out for glory.

The tournament will be spread over seven weeks with matches played in India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. While seven weeks is undoubtedly too long, it promises to be an intense and dramatic tournament and bet365 make India 11/4 favourites to win it, with Sri Lanka second in the betting at 4/1.

Home comforts key Over such a long tournament, any time you can rest and relax is doubly important and so for the host nations, that could be vitally important even though the hosts have actually only one the World Cup once. That was in 1996 when Sri Lanka, who had staged a few group matches, surprised everyone to win it.

In the intervening 15 years, Sri Lanka have become one of the very best sides in the world on a consistent basis and though the Aussies have won the last three World Cups, it is not difficult to see both India and Sri Lanka coming through to the final.

For India, this could be the last hurrah. It is surely the last World Cup for Sachin Tendulkar and the last time their much vaunted batting line-up will all be together in a major tournament. That in itself puts a lot of pressure on them but they have the experience and skill to handle it and it is difficult to see them not getting to the semi-finals at least.

No one plays more one-dayers than India and their strength in depth will serve them well, as will their variety in attack, although the fact that Harbhajan Singh will have to do most of the work as the spinner could go against them in the end. But it is impossible to underestimate the value of their huge home support and they will surely be there or thereabouts.

Sri Lanka have more variety than any other team when it comes to bowling and will be desperate to win again, not least for Muttiah Muralitharan, who will retire after the tournament. Their batsmen are strong enough to get the job done and there are few better teams at bowling at the death, while their fielding has become excellent. At 4/1 they are actually better value and it could well be that they end up on top.

Australia, at 11/2, are no longer the force they were even just a few years ago and I can't see them winning it, although their sheer will power could take them close. They have the experience; I just think that overall they are not as strong as some of the others.

South Africa, at 5/1, will fancy their chances. On paper, they have a superb side and no one will be better organised or prepared than them. But their biggest problem is the mental side - for want of a better word, they have bottled it on the big occasions in the past and overcoming that psychological block is a huge issue for them. They are capable but whether they can beat India, Australia or Sri Lanka back to back to win it is another matter.

England have improved immensely in one-day cricket in recent years but after a long Ashes Tour and with a few key players getting injured, including Eoin Morgan, they will surely struggle to get the job done. At 7/1 they look too short for me.

Dark horses Pakistan, on the other hand, could be the value of the tournament, at 8/1. Though playing in India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh is not exactly "at home" the conditions of the pitches will be well-known to them and they should feel more comfortable than most. In terms of sheer talent, they are right up there and I see them making at least the semis. Their problem is consistency but they are capable of great things on their day and that makes them dangerous - at 8/1 they could be worth an each-way dabble.

West Indies and New Zealand are each 20/1 and each will have the odd good performance, as usual. Bangladesh, too, may be inspired by playing at home. But the four semi-finalists will surely come from the top six in the betting and if you discount England as potential winners, that makes it one from five.

I love watching India play but I just don't think there is enough between themselves and Sri Lanka to warrant the difference in prices. At 4/1 and with bet365 paying 1/2 the odds for reaching the final, you could legitimately back them each-way. The same is definitely true at 8/1 for Pakistan, who are more of a risk but who have a great World Cup pedigree, so why not try them too.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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