• World Cup, 2011

Semis will be all about the pressure

Simon Cambers March 28, 2011

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And then there were four. Those of you who took the advice to back Sri Lanka, with a saver on Pakistan, are sitting rather nicely at the moment and though India and New Zealand willl have other ideas, the two sides are one win away from making the final.

New Zealand's win over South Africa showed exactly the kind of effect pressure can have on a side and there will be no more pressure than in the second semi-final between India and Pakistan in Mohali on Wednesday. How they respond to having the hopes and dreams of a nation upon them will go a long way to deciding their fate.

The first semi-final is on Tuesday and pits New Zealand against Sri Lanka. For the sixth time the New Zealanders find themselves in the last four of a World Cup and I don't think anyone would begrudge them if they made it to a first final. However, that will be enormously difficult against a side they have already lost to, and lost to handily, in the competition.

Sri Lanka won by 112 runs in that group stages encounter and it is simply their enormous variety with the ball that sets them apart from the others, with spin dominant but the brilliant Lasith Malinga making it impossible to score at the death down the other end.

Their batting may lack the depth of India's side but their top four are all class so if they are in control of the match early on, it will be enormously hard for New Zealand to get past them, even though we can expect them to perform to their absolute best once more.

Bet365 make Sri Lanka 1/3 to win the match, though, and that's no price to take on such a pressure-filled contest. New Zealand will have their friends at 12/5 but as I said it's tough to see them winning, so a big price is only a good price if they have a real chance to win.

Onus on big guns in Mohali

Mohali is the venue for the match everyone in India and Pakistan want to see - although they would, of course, have preferred it to have been a final rather than a semi-final.

The two sides are pretty well matched and when they play against each other, it's really about who can shut out the outside distractions to play their own game. Bet365 make India the 8/15 favourites but Pakistan are well in this one and can be backed at 6/4.

India have the greater overall consistency, even if they have not been totally rock solid in the tournament to date. Pakistan have flair everywhere and when they are on, they can be incredibly difficult to beat. The problem for them and for punters is that you never really know when that is going to happen.

The pitch could be a massive factor in the outcome of this semi-final, with the toss also likely to be significant. Five of the past seven matches there have been won by the side batting first and in the past nine matches, the sides have managed more than 300 runs only twice.

Pakistan are excellent at defending totals and to my mind, they need to win the toss more than India do. India's batting is their strength - their depth outstrips that of Pakistan and probably every other team in the competition - and when their big names are on song, they are hard to stop.

If India are going to win this World Cup, especially if Sri Lanka are waiting in the final, then I feel their batting has to be top-notch. That means the big guns - Virender Sehwag, Sachin Tendulkar and Yuvraj Singh doing the business. Sehwag hit a big hundred early on and has done little since, but Tendulkar and Yuvraj are playing beautifully.

This promises to be a fantastic spectacle and if Pakistan play as well as they can, it will be too close to call. I just think, however, that they won't make enough runs to defend and if that's the case, it'll be the end of the road for them.

So India and Sri Lanka to win, but I wouldn't go too strong on it because the other two sides deserve our respect and also because if you have already backed Sri Lanka, then you should just sit tight.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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