• Grand National preview

The Gate is open for a huge shock

ESPN staff
April 7, 2011
Dooneys Gate holds a better chance than his price implies © PA Photos
Enlarge

Click here to bet on the Grand National at bet365

With punters revived after the four days of Cheltenham, the focus turns to the Grand National and it is as wide open as ever with the favourite likely to go off at double-figure odds.

Predicting who will go off favourite could be as difficult as bagging the winner itself, but at the time of writing the Ruby Walsh-ridden The Midnight Club heads the market. With our ante-post selections - Niche Market, Big Fella Thanks and Comply Or Die - all guaranteed to get in and trading at odds below what we recommended them at, we can approach the race in a bullish position and able to train our sights on some of the other runners.

National wagers


  • Dooneys Gate E/W - 66/1 at bet365
    Chief Dan George E/W - 33/1 at bet365
    Already advised
  • Niche Market E/W - 16/1 at bet365
  • Big Fella Thanks E/W - 20/1 at bet365
  • Comply or Die E/W - 50/1 at bet365

The gap between Cheltenham and Aintree is as short as it can be, just three weeks, and it will be difficult for horses to back up big efforts at the Festival in the Grand National. One horse that falls into this category is What A Friend. Paul Nicholls' charge has a lot in his favour - the ground will be to his liking with the sun set to beat down and if the Handicapper had his way, he would throw an extra 15lbs pounds on his back following his superb effort in the Gold Cup. For those holding vouchers in the region of 40/1 (some exchange punters have 600/1) you can be feeling pretty pleased with yourself, but at present he is trading at 11/1 with bet365. Those odds offer little value as he had a tough race at Cheltenham where he travelled as well as anything for much of the race before being outpaced only to run on for fourth. The unique demands of Aintree could bring out the best in What A Friend, but he is sure to travel exuberantly and although he was not stopping at the end of the Gold Cup there is a nagging doubt about his ability to see out the four and a half miles. And the long run-in will give the bay plenty of time to think about things if he is in contention.

The Midnight Club has been steadily trimmed in the market, mainly on the back of Walsh committing to the ride ahead of the likes of What A Friend and Niche Market. Trainer Willie Mullins knows what it takes to prepare a National winner - Hedgehunter won the race in 2005 - and The Midnight Club looked a thorough stayer when winning the Bobbyjo Chase. With just two runs this term, he will be fresh for the occasion and holds live claims. But another Mullins runners holds excellent claims yet can be back at six times the price.

Dooneys Gate has slipped totally under the radar but has a similar profile to The Midnight Club. He has had just two runs this term and absolutely hacked up in the Kilcash Chase on his most recent outing. There will be those who will suggest he will not handle the conditions, having done the majority of his racing in testing ground. It is true Dooneys Gate has run just once on good ground, but he was in the process of producing one of his best efforts when unseating his rider at the last when in command. He's never raced beyond three miles but pedigree suggests he will not fail for stamina and at 66/1 with bet365 it is worth taking the risk that he will put his best foot forward.

Can Don't Push It repeat his win? © Getty Images
Enlarge

With the sun likely to shine, Aintree officials may elect to turn on the sprinklers before Saturday. But if that's the case it means conditions are likely to ride on the fast side and those who prefer give underfoot will be massively inconvenienced. Silver By Nature is one such challenger and if the forecast is correct, trainer Lucinda Russell may pull her confirmed mudlark out. Even if he takes his chance, he will find things happening too quickly and is one to avoid.

Those who prefer to hear their hooves rattle will be in their element and two of our ante-post fancies - Niche Market and Big Fella Thanks - fit into that category. Others who could thrive are State Of Play - twice placed in the race and sure to be primed for the day - Quinz and last year's winner Don't Push It. The latter has to carry top weight but his task will be made easier by the faster conditions.

A final runner to note and certainly worth a punt is Chief Dan George. Jimmy Moffatt's charge thrives when the weather improves in the spring and he is a huge price at 33/1. He was sent to Cheltenham and got no further than the fifth behind Bensalem, but he is usually a fine jumper and not having a demanding race could well be to his advantage. He will not fail for stamina, having shown fine form over extreme distances.

Having said earlier it may be as hard to predict the favourite as the winner, we are now not so sure!

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.
Close