Can United stop the brilliant Lionel Messi from running the show at Wembley?
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There seems to be a growing consensus, in Britain at least, that Manchester United have the ability to win the Champions League final by beating Barcelona at Wembley on Saturday evening. But though Sir Alex Ferguson's side have a chance, I am not one to look a gift horse in the face and Barcelona, at even money, have to be a good price to win it again.
The reason is simple. They are the better team. As in 2009, when they beat United 2-0 in the final, they have been the best side all season and I am not going to read too much into their last few games of the season when, with the league title already won, they eased their foot off the pedal.
In Lionel Messi they have the world's best player and it will be up to Ferguson to decide how he is going to stop the Argentina forward who has made better defences than United look a shambles this season.
In Xabi and Andres Iniesta they have two of the most brilliant midfielders in a generation, two men who make it seem as if the ball is on a string and with a telepathic understanding. Javier Mascherano will do a lot of the harrowing in midfield and they have experience and class all over the field with Carlos Puyol marshalling the defence.
Cambers' Calls
- Barcelona to win Champions League final - evens bet365
- Barcelona to beat Man Utd 2-0 in final - 15/2
Now I am not saying that United will not score because they have a lot of firepower and Wayne Rooney has been playing well again in recent weeks. The controversy over Ryan Giggs and the superinjunction may unsettle the side or make them more determined but I am more concerned with their defence.
The brilliant footwork of Barcelona means United will have to be so careful at the back and it would not be the biggest shock if Nemanja Vidic got himself sent off. The Serbian is an outstanding player and the most important figure in United's defence but if he gets turned inside out by Messi and David Villa, then he could be in trouble.
Wembley is a big pitch and though United will try to catch the Spanish side on the counter-attack, I can see them having to work so hard to get the ball back that they may just run out of steam. Barcelona won't panic if they don't find the net early on and it would not be that surprising if Barcelona score a couple of late goals.
United's supporters will be relying on the belief that Barcelona are tired after another long and successful season but they will be as motivated as ever. This Barcelona team wants to go down in history as the best team and that means winning more European Cups.
United are 11/4 with bet365 to win it in 90 minutes and the draw is 5/4 but Josep Guardiola's side are evens to win it in normal time and that has to be the bet. They are better, so if both teams play to their potential, they will win.
And if I had to go for a correct score - never my favourite option but in finals I'll make an exception - then I'd go for a repeat of the 2009 scoreline, a 2-0 win for Barcelona at 15/2 with bet365.
If the Spanish side score first, United will have to chase the game and that will leave them open to a second for Barcelona.
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent
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Simon Cambers
Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondant Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondant
