• Wimbledon 2011

This could be Murray's year

Simon Cambers June 18, 2011

If the bookmakers are to be believed, the men's singles at this year's Wimbledon Championships, which begin on Monday, are about just four men - Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Andy Murray. And I have to agree.

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Others may make a big run, some may cause the odd upset but if one of the top four does not take the title in a fortnight, I will be very, very surprised. Over the past year, they have separated themselves from the rest of the pack and they have been hugely supported in the markets leading up to day one.

As they were last year, Nadal and Murray are in one half, and Djokovic and Federer in the other. Then only a surprise defeat for Federer by Tomas Berdych stopped all four making it to the semi-finals and it would seem a pretty good bet that all four will make it again this time round.

That's not to say there are not dangers lurking in the draw. Nadal has rising star Miolas Raonic as a potential third-round opponent while Murray has Marin Cilic, a man he has lost to at a grand slam before. Djokovic has Marcos Baghdatis early on and Federer could have to take on John Isner, if the American can get past Nicolas Mahut - again.

There are compelling reasons to back any of the four. Nadal should be restored to full confidence after winning the French Open, even though he did not play at his absolute best there as he had done many times before. The winner in 2008 and 2010, he is the man to beat.

Djokovic has lost one match all year, to Federer in Paris, and has reached the semis at Wimbledon twice, including 12 months ago, when he really should have beaten Berdych. Federer went pretty close to beating Nadal in Paris and will fancy his chances of winning on his favourite surface - for a sixth time.

And Murray - ah, the British search for a first champion since Fred Perry in 1936. Well, I have to say that things may just be coming together nicely for Murray. His performances on clay were hugely encouraging and winning Queen's can only have done him good. If he can conserve his energy in the first week, and cope with the obvious pressure, then I have a feeling he can go very, very close to winning his first grand slam title.

Bet365 make Nadal the 2/1 favourite, marginally ahead of Federer at 9/4 and Djokovic close behind at 10/3. Murray is 11/2 and at the odds, he is the best value of the top four.

Now I know he almost certainly has to get past Nadal but he has beaten the Spaniard in grand slams twice before - in the semis of the US Open in 2008 and in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open in 2010. He always plays well against him and after the experience of playing him at the same stage last year, he will believe he can do it. At 11/2 he is worth backing each-way.

Having said all of that, I think Federer has to be a real danger to Murray's chances, and those of everyone. The Swiss looked back close to his very best in Paris and he loves Wimbledon like no one else. If he serves at his best, he is still close to unbeatable but the thing with him now, with his 30th birthday just around the corner, he struggles to sustain his periods of brilliance within matches.

Djokovic can't be discounted. You don't go six months losing just once without playing some phenomenal tennis and his confidence is sky-high. He ought to get through to play Federer and that would be some semi-final.

And Nadal is simply incredible. The Spaniard is on track - at least in terms of age - to break the all-time grand slam titles record - and is chasing No 11 here. His competitive spirit is unmatched and with the grass at Wimbledon so much slower than it was a decade ago, things are geared towards someone like him winning again.

But, as I said, at the odds, Murray is the value and something inside me says that though the top four are so clearly the best, one of them might not make it. We shall see.

The search for an outsider

Given the strength of the big guns, picking someone who could come through at a good price is harder than ever, especially when each-way means reaching the final. Berdych is a massive price at 50-1 given what he did last year but he is not playing as well as he was then.

Juan Martin Del Potro is 25/1 and if it wasn't grass, I would be tempted. The Argentinian is playing very well once more but he struggles to move as well on grass as he does on hard courts. He will be more dangerous on the hard courts when the tour hits America in the late summer.

Andy Roddick, the three-time finalist, is 40/1 but the way he was taken apart by Murray at Queen's does not bode well for his chances.

In fact, maybe John Isner could be the call. If any of the top four are going to go early, it could be Federer and providing Isner makes it past Mahut - surely it can't go 11 hours again - then the American could be a big danger. At 80/1 it's a real outside bet so keep stakes low.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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