• Out of Bounds

Kaymer & G-Mac primed but Sergio tempts

Martin Kaymer won't be glancing nervously over his shoulder © Getty Images

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After a draining year on the European Tour, 60 players are left standing for the Dubai World Championship, the final event on the calendar. The scene is set for a showdown at the top of the Race to Dubai standings, with both Martin Kaymer and Graeme McDowell knowing that a victory would crown them European No. 1.

There's no doubt that McDowell arrives with more momentum behind him, having slashed into Kaymer's advantage in the money list over recent weeks. That said, the German probably arrives as the slight favourite given that his lead of €290,910 offers him significant padding at the top - McDowell needs to finish in the top three to stand any chance at all.

For that reason, we'll back Kaymer to defend his lead at the top of the standings. But when it comes to picking a winner for the tournament, we're reluctant to stick our neck above the parapet. Although plenty look to have a chance of victory, no candidate offers a truly compelling case for the punter. Of course, there's the option of diving into the each-way market - and Rory McIlroy (13/1) would be our tip if you did - but only big stakes would yield any significant reward, so we're not sure it's worth the risk.

Thankfully, when it comes to value, there are a few names that stand out from the pack. Firstly, Sergio Garcia (50/1) comes in at odds that appear too generous. Yes, we're aware that he's had a tough year - but much of the sniping about his demise has been exaggerated, and there's no reason to let the ink dry on his golfing obituary just yet.

Sergio Garcia is ready to emerge from the wilderness © Getty Images

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This is the right sort of course for the Spaniard - it's a huge par-72, so you can guarantee a big hitter will win - and his recent form, while short of his celebrated best, has been decent. After ending his two-month hiatus from the sport in October, he finished a creditable tenth at the Valderrama Masters. We'd be amazed if he won the tournament but, after he ended seventh last year, he's worth a look each-way.

With so much focus on Kaymer and McDowell, one of the year's other major winners, Louis Oosthuizen, appears to have been inexplicably overlooked by the bookmakers. He was 12th here in 2009 and, although he hasn't been a regular on the circuit in recent months, can boast three top fives from his last seven starts. Odds of 50/1 should be snapped up on the man who lifted the Open in such style only four months ago.

If we invest our faith in form, then Gary Boyd has to be worth a small investment at 100/1. The Englishman, who can bludgeon the ball from the tee like the best of them, has challenged deep into the final day at three of his last four events. Before his most recent outing - 44th at Valderrama - he had gone on a run of ten rounds in the 60s out of 12 attempted. It's a shortened field, pressure may play tricks on the mind of the top-ranked players, so Boyd's attraction is indisputable.

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