• England v India, 1st Test, 2011

Lord's could give England fast start

Simon Cambers July 19, 2011

The first Test between England and India begins at Lord's on Thursday, the start of a series that promises a lot, with the hosts trying to take over from the tourists - at least unofficially - as the world's top side.

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The fickle English weather could well play a part in the outcome of this match - and the rest of the series if the sun doesn't show itself at some stage - and that probably explains the shortness of the draw price with bet365, at 4/5, to be exact. The bookmaker makes England 11/5 to win it and India 9/2.

On paper, there is very little to separate the two sides. On the one hand, India have established themselves as the world's No 1-ranked side and are used to winning. They travel far better than they used to and are well used to English conditions. On the other, England are at home, on the up and becoming a side also used to winning.

Something's got to give and as we discussed in the outright series preview, it could be the bowlers who decide the outcome, both at Lord's and beyond. The headquarters of cricket is one of the better venues for swing bowling and though Zaheer Khan is a superb exponent of that art and Ishant Sharma is looking much-improved, James Anderson is the king of swing.

Chris Tremlett will exploit any hardness in the pitch, Stuart Broad will offer strength and consistency - if he bowls well - and Graeme Swann is an outstanding off-spinner with that canny knack for taking wickets. India may be the best players of spin in world cricket but the variety of consistency of the England attack gives them the edge.

Now everyone knows the India batting line-up is absolutely top notch. They have proved it time and time again and in Sachin Tendulkar they have arguably the best batsman of all time. But if there is real hope for England, it is the absence of Virender Sehwag for the first two Tests.

Sehwag is the most destructive batsman in world cricket and he can knock bowlers off their stride and ruin their pre-match plans. Gautam Gambhir is a superb opener alongside him but with the newcomer Abkinav Mukund to look after, he will be under more pressure than normal.

Messrs Tendulkar, Dravid and Laxman will be tough to get out as ever, but Tendulkar and Dravid have not played much cricket in recent months as they have been given deserved rests, so it is asking a lot for them to hit the ground running at Lord's, even if every international player often plays above themselves there.

England's batting line-up is nicely settled, even if I'd like to see Ian Bell batting higher up the order. That said, the retirement of Paul Collingwood means he will bat at No 5 and that's good enough. Alastair Cook and captain Andrew Strauss are a solid opening partnership, Jonathan Trott is a rock and Kevin Pietersen is still the team's best batsman when he is in the mood, and in this series he surely will be.

History is on England's side

England have been a good side at home for a long time now but a look at the statistics will enhance that view even more. In the last 20 Tests at Lord's - starting with the 2001 Ashes contest - England have won nine, drawn eight and lost just three.

Furthermore, they have not lost at Lord's since 2005, again to Australia, and South Africa, in 2003, were the only other side to get the better of them in those 20 Tests. England are unbeaten in the last 11 matches there and are more confident at Lord's now than they have been in many years.

With the English summer having been more of a damp squib than a roaster so far, scoring could be tough. In the past 20 Tests, the average runs per wicket for the side batting first is 37.65, with it actually going up slightly to 38.54 for the second innings in the match. In the past 20 Tests, of the 14 wins, seven have come to the side batting first and seven to the side batting second so the toss may not be crucial.

So who's going to get the runs? Well we've already suggested Pietersen as the top scorer in the series and the man for the big stage could be worth following at Lord's. He is 9/2 to come out on top in the first innings and that's a decent price.

Alastair Cook is the 3/1 favourite, with Jonathan Trott 7/2 and Andrew Strauss 4/1. Any of those three could finish on top but Pietersen usually produces big performances on big stages and there are none bigger than Lord's. For the record, Ian Bell is 15/2, Eoin Morgan 15/2 and Matt Prior is 12/1.

For India, Tendulkar is the 3/1 favourite as he chases his hundredth international century, which will surely come at some time in the series. Dravid and Gambhir ar 4/1, with Laxman 5/1, new man Mukund 6/1 and Yuvraj Singh 15/2.

As for the bowlers, it's hard to look past Anderson, who is the No 1 bowler in the world with the new ball, in my opinion. Bet365 make him 5/2 joint-favourite to take the most first-innings wickets, with Graeme Swann, but if England make early breakthroughs, then he may have more chance than the rest. Tremlett is 3/1, Broad 4/1 and Tim Bresnan, an outsider for a starting spot, also at 4/1.

Zaheer Khan is the obvious favourite for India at 9/4, with the vastly improved Ishant Sharma just behind at 3/1. Harbhajan and Patel are both 7/2 and Anit Mishra and Sreesanth are 4/1.

This match should be a cracker but in the end, I think England's confidence, combined with a bit of ring rust on India's behalf and the absence of Sehwag could swing it in the home side's favour.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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