• Euro 2012 qualifying

Wales have ability to hold England

Simon Cambers March 25, 2011

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The consensus of opinion amongst most pundits, it seems, is that now that Gareth Bale has been ruled out of Saturday's Euro 2012 qualifying match with England, then the visitors will have it all easy and run out straightforward winners. I am not so sure.

There is no doubt that the loss of Bale is a significant blow to Wales for he is their one true world-class player and England will be grateful for the fact that he won't be there. Bet365 make England 2/5 to win it, which is fair enough.

However, it is not exactly a match you would want to put your house on England winning. Not only because betting on England to win is a high-risk strategy at the best of times and not just because the home nations always raise their game against England. But also because England are not at full strength and not exactly on top form.

With no Steven Gerrard, no Rio Ferdinand, no Ben Foster and perhaps no Frank Lampard if reports that he will be dropped prove to be true, England manager Fabio Capello has plenty to think about as he tries to field a team good enough to win the match.

It is only a few months since England laboured to a goalless draw at home with Montenegro, hardly a world force in the game, so for England to be expected to come out and slam five goals in is not really that realistic.

Now OK, Wales have lost all three of their group matches so far and are never going to threaten to win one of these groups, such is the strength in depth. However, two of them were away and though they lost at home to Bulgaria, they were arguably unlucky not to at least get a point.

I can see Wales, in front of their home fans, playing out of their skins and while I don't see them actually beating England, they could force a draw, so let's make the 7/2 on offer with bet365 the bet of the weekend.

Weekend treble

Holland have won all four of their games so far and they should be too strong for Hungary, even away from home. The World Cup runners-up can lead off a weekend international treble by taking victory at 4/9.

It's a while since Romania were a world force, at least since the retirement of the great Hagi, and they could well go down at Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Balkan side won away at Luxembourg last time out and they could cause a mini surprise by winning at 6/5.

Finally, Serbia should be too good at home - even if the match is being played with no home fans as punishment for crowd trouble last time - for Northern Ireland and at 8/15 they can complete a treble that would work out at about 4/1.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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