Rafael Nadal may not have been at his best in week one but he is sure to improve as the tournament progresses
© Getty Images
Enlarge
Click here to bet on the French Open at bet365
Halfway through the French Open and our outright tip for the men's event, Rafael Nadal, remains on track though his progress has not been as smooth as expected. Novak Djokovic is still on course and Roger Federer is lurking in ominous form.
Original preview
If the bookies are to be believed, the men's event at the French Open is a straight fight between the king of clay, Rafael Nadal and the man of the moment, Novak Djokovic.
I can't remember a French Open where the top two have been so far ahead of the rest in the betting. Even when Nadal and Federer were at the top of the betting, there was always someone else hovering in there at about 8/1 but this time the next best is Federer himself at 14/1 and after Andy Murray at 16/1, it's 33/1 bar the rest of the field.
Of course, that is all down to what's happened in the past six months and the transformation of Djokovic from a very, very good player into a great champion. Unbeaten in 2011, every part of the Serb's game is working to perfection at the moment and his confidence is at an all-time high, shown in his four wins over Nadal in finals this year - the last two on the Spaniard's cherished clay courts.
Bet365 give the slight edge to Nadal at 10/11 with Djokovic at 11/8 and I think that's just about fair enough. Nadal has won the French Open in five of the past six years and with the exception of one match - against Robin Soderling in 2009 - he has been unbeatable and untouchable over five sets on the dirt.
Cambers' Calls
- Rafael Nadal to win French Open men's singles - 10/11 bet365
- David Ferrer E/W French Open men's singles - 33/1 bet365
That's the big challenge for Djokovic, to show he can match Nadal not just over three sets but over five when the pressure is really amped up by the occasion. If the two men do meet in the final, it's going to be some battle.
On paper, Djokovic has the harder route, with Juan Martin Del Potro, Richard Gasquet, Tomas Berdych all waiting before he even gets to the semi-finals and a likely meeting with Federer.
Nadal has a tough opener against big-serving American John Isner but after that it ought to be plain sailing until Soderling in the quarters. But the Swede has been struggling of late, hampered by an injury, and therefore you'd expect Nadal to be there in the last four.
His opponent, according to the seedings, should be Andy Murray and the Briton has bounced back to form superbly in recent weeks and may just fancy his chances should the two play each other in the semis. Before that, Murray has a couple of tough matches, with future star Milos Raonic and Juergen Melzer in his path but he will be disappointed if he doesn't at least make the last eight and probably a round further.
It's hard to suggest anyone as an outside bet as it relies on one of the top two failing early and though it's possible, it's unlikely. At 14/1, there will be those who feel Federer is an unbelievable price but he has been vulnerable this year and a fourth-round match with Stanislas Wawrinka or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga might be tough.
Del Potro would have been hugely dangerous had he not suffered an injury just before Roland Garros that made him doubtful until the last minute; Gasquet is playing his best tennis in years but the weight of expectation on the French makes backing him tougher, while Gael Monfils has struggled through injury. No one else stands out.
If Murray gets to the semi-finals then he will be playing well enough to really believe he can upset Nadal, and at 16/1 he is not a bad price as he is definitely in the top five or six in the world on clay. You'd take him, for example, against Federer on clay these days.
But in the end it comes down to two. I don't think either of them will be too tired despite their efforts in recent weeks and it will be fascinating to see if Nadal tries to bring something different to the court should they meet in the final.
Confidence is massive in tennis, as in any sport, but experience is just as important at times and Nadal has it in spades at Roland Garros. Providing he gets the job done against Isner, his draw should allow him to ease into the tournament and I think he may just be ready for one big push in a fortnight. Back him at 10/11.
If you're going to go for an outsider, David Ferrer may be the man at 33/1, with bet365 paying half the odds the first two. The Spaniard is a dog on the court, ultra consistent and willing to battle for hours. In Federer's half, he will be there to take advantage of any slip by the Swiss and if he gets through to the semis, Djokovic will not enjoy playing him.
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent
© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.
Simon Cambers
Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondant Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondant
