• Open Championship

How to pick an Open champion

July 15, 2014

Having correctly predicted Bubba Watson would win the Masters, based on a statistical analysis of the history of the event, I have become a popular source of information in the week of a major. This week is no different as the world's attention centres on Royal Liverpool Golf Club and the 143rd Open Championship.

But what is the key to winning The Open and winning at Hoylake? A look back at recent history suggests one or two trends that may be of interest as fans search for an Open favourite.

Age And Experience

Open by name, open by nature, the Open Championship has produced a wide array of winners. Tiger, who won at Royal Liverpool at the 2006 Open, has won it three times while the likes of Todd Hamilton, Ben Curtis, Stewart Cink, Paul Lawrie and Darren Clarke have come out of nowhere to win. Statistically, no other major championship in the last 20 years has produced a higher average age (33.4) or world rank (51.1) of winner.

Not all of the professionals take to links golf easily. Defending champion Phil Mickelson said in his press conference this week that he thought it took him about 10 years to get used to links courses. The challenge of the conditions, slower greens and firmer turf can be challenging, even for the best players in the world.

For that reason, it is worth looking for players with previous Open success and experience. Eight of the past nine champions had played The Open on at least 10 occasions before hoisting the Claret Jug. Furthermore, 20 of the last 25 winners had previously finished in the top 15 at an Open Championship.

The Scottish Curse

So what about Justin Rose? He broke onto the scene with a top-five finish as an amateur at the 1999 Open. He enters this year's event ranked a career-high third in the world on the back of two consecutive wins, on both sides of the Atlantic. As one of the best iron players in the game, you would think he has to be fancied this year. However, history suggests otherwise.

Rose did win the Scottish Open last week but in his 11 Open appearances as a professional, he has never finished inside the top 10 and has missed the cut on five occasions.

While Phil became the first player to break the Scottish Open curse last year, winning both the British and Scottish Opens in the same year, history doesn't favour those who tee it up in Scotland the week before. Only five of the last 21 Open Champions took part at the Scottish Open the year they won and Phil is the only Open winner over that span who finished inside the top 50 at the Scottish.

Surprisingly, Tiger is the only Open champion to finish in the top 10 of his last event prior to the Open since 1996. Not good news for those who played well at Royal Aberdeen or the John Deere Classic.

Form

While immediate form (i.e. the week before) may not be important, this is the third major of the year and the sample size for assessing a player's form is far larger and more reliable than either the Masters or US Open. For that reason, it's interesting to know that 12 of the last 17 Open winners had won previously in the year they won the Claret Jug.

Par-four Performance

With less length than some of the other majors, and more irons in play off the tee, scoring on par-fours tends to be slightly easier at The Open. The last 19 Open winners ranked inside the top 10 in par-four scoring, with 11 ranking either first or second during their victories.

A Solid Start

The first round of an Open is always challenging. Getting a feel for the greens as well as the conditions can end a good week before it's begun. Just look at last year. Luke Donald opened with an 80 in the first round at Muirfield, while Paul Lawrie bounced back from an opening 81 to shoot 69 and make the cut by one.

As far as the key to winning The Open, a good start is a good start. Eight of the last nine winners managed to open their campaigns with a sub-70 round. Note I said a good start, not "a great start". Tiger is the only winner since 1995 who led after the first round.

When The Open was last at Hoylake, Graeme McDowell exploded into the lead with an opening round, course-record 65 only to slump with rounds of 73, 72 and 79, finishing in a tie for 61st.

...So who does this favour?

Based on these numbers, I believe the Champion Golfer of 2014 will be one of the following players:

Adam Scott: Unibet odds - 16/1

No surprise here, the world No.1 Scott played well at Hoylake in 2006 finishing tied for eighth, his best Open finish until the past two years where he has finished second and third respectively. He has plenty of experience under his belt playing in his 15th Open this week, and has the game to win.

His 14 finishes since October last year read first, first, third, second, sixth, eighth, 12th, 25th, third, 14th, 38th, first, fourth, ninth. He has already won this year, ranks tied for second on the PGA Tour in par-four scoring and skipped events last week, choosing instead to arrive at Hoylake a week early for preparation.

Henrik Stenson: Odds - 16/1

When it comes to stats and numbers, few compete with the big Swede. He plays his 10th Open Championship this week, having finished inside the top three on three occasions in the last six years, including a solo second last year. With an emphasis on par-4s and iron play he is sure to compete; he led the PGA Tour in greens in regulation in 2013. He may not have picked up a win this year, but he has finished in the top seven of his last four events. With the chance to become the world No.1 with a victory this week, look out for Stenson on Sunday.

Graeme McDowell: Odds - 25/1

While McDowell failed to capitalise on his good start in 2006, he has the numbers to compete this week. He too skipped last week, having won the French Open the week before. He does have a top-five finish in The Open in 2012 and will tee it up for the 11th time, in his 36th major, at this year's Open Championship.

Known as a strong links player, McDowell is straight off the tee and sharp on the greens. He leads the PGA Tour in 2014 in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining more than a shot on average on the field each round with his putting. G-Mac is still on the outside looking in when it comes to Ryder Cup qualification and will have have eyes set on a strong showing this week.

Matt Kuchar: Odds - 35/1

On paper, the consistent American has all it takes to win the Claret Jug. Having missed the cut at his first four Open appearances he has finished in the top 15 at the last two. He leads the PGA Tour in par-four scoring and has picked up a win and 7 other top-10s already this year. On the eve of his 10th Open and 36th major, he is certainly one to watch.

Zach Johnson: Odds - 50/1

Will Zach be the American to win this year? 12 of the last 19 Open Championships have been won by players from across the pond. While Johnson unwisely finished second last week at the John Deere classic, he does have all the experience and talent to win the 2014 Open. He led after the first round last year at Muirfield and has finished 16th, ninth and sixth in his last three Open appearances.

He already has a win under his belt in 2014 and is known as one of the best putters in the world. While he isn't long off the tee, Hoylake's hard, fast layout doesn't require length. Like McDowell, Johnson will be playing in his 11th Open Championship this week.

Mikko Ilonen: Odds - 90/1

"Who?" I hear you ask. The Finn, who has already won on a links course this year at the Irish Open, has plenty of form at Hoylake. He finished 16th here in 2006 despite being inside the top five going into the weekend and also won the British Amateur Championship at Royal Liverpool in 2000.

He has finished inside the top-10 at The Open before (in 2001), and has played over 300 events on the European Tour. Having been ranked as low as 581st in the world in 2010, he enters this week inside the top-50 in the world and well under the radar.

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