The experience and class of Ryan Giggs has shown in recent weeks and may well do again in the FA Cup semi-final this weekend
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Manchester City have made a habit of upsetting their neighbours and more illustrious rivals in recent years but without their best player and after a terrible display last time out, I just can't see anything other than Manchester United winning this weekend's FA Cup semi-final.
Now there is a case to be made that City's minds were not on the job against Liverpool at Anfield on Monday night and it's likely that they will be more determined and motivated for an FA Cup semi-final than a league game.
But they have three big problems for the Wembley encounter. First, United are in good form themselves, top of the league and into the semis of the Champions League, doing their old thing of winning even when they are not playing their best.
Cambers' Calls
- Bet of the weekend - Manchester United to beat Manchester City - 11/10 bet365
- Weekend punt - West Brom to beat Chelsea - 9/2 bet365
- Weekend treble - Everton, Blackpool and Birmingham to win - 15/2 bet365
Second, City's away record is appalling with no wins in their past 10 matches away from Eastlands. And third - and perhaps most importantly - their best player, Carlos Tevez, is out through injury, leaving them short of finishing power and effort.
United still have plenty of work to do to win the league - they still have to play their nearest challengers Arsenal as well as Chelsea - but they will not be saving themselves by playing a weakened team. This is still the FA Cup and once you get to Wembley, which means the semi-finals these days, the trophy looms large in everyone's minds.
Sir Alex Ferguson's men are operating smoothly, their big players are all fit and their experience of this kind of situation is crucial. City are capable of doing something this weekend but nine times out of 10 United will win this match, so they are the bet of the weekend at 11/10 with Bet365.
The second semi-final really is a pick-em match, I think. Bolton are probably the more consistent of the two but Stoke, on their day, have such a physical presence in attack that if they play well they can be hard to stop.
Stoke's away record is poor - especially in London - but that will not have too much bearing on this one. At the prices, Stoke get the nod at 2/1 but there is very little in it.
The weekend punt has to come at the Hawthorns where West Brom, probably a couple of points away from being safe, take on a Chelsea side who look rattled and, dare I say it, old.
The future of Carlo Ancelotti has been hanging over their heads in recent weeks and the form and lack of goals from Fernando Torres is making everyone a bit itchy at Stamford Bridge. This could be the final nail in the coffin for Ancelotti and West Brom look a big price to win it at 9/2.
For the weekend treble let's start at Everton where David Moyes' side should be able to see off Blackburn at 4/6. Blackpool can get the better of a talented but inconsistent Wigan side at 13/10 and Birmingham could well edge Sunderland into more trouble with a victory at 6/5.
Put all those three together and if they come good, you will get odds of around 15/2, which is pretty good for three home wins. Good luck!
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent
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Simon Cambers
Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondant Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondant
