• Premier League and FA Cup, 2010-11

Class to win out in FA Cup final

Simon Cambers May 13, 2011

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I have been thinking a lot about this weekend's FA Cup final and after a lot of changing of my mind, I think I have decided which way things will go at Wembley and unfortunately for Stoke fans, I doubt it will be their day.

The FA Cup final is a little like the Grand National in that although a lot of luck can be needed to win it, if you back the class horse or team then you have a good chance of coming out on top.

Stoke have done fantastically well all season, both in the Cup and in the Premier League and they get under the skin of other sides with their physicality, while at the same time having enough about them to get the job done with some decent football.

However, on a big stage - and there are few bigger than the FA Cup final - I think that class will win out and that means Manchester City winning that first big trophy for their rich owners.

Though Stoke coped well with the size of the occasion and the pitch when their semi-final was played at Wembley, I think they may just be chasing the ball too much against Roberto Mancini's side.

Much will depend on the injury situation but I would argue that Robert Huth is probably more important for Stoke than Carlos Tevez is for Manchester City. If Huth is absent, I fear for Stoke and could see it being quite comfortable for City in the end.

You just don't get that many upsets in the final these days and at 5/6 with bet365 to win in 90 minutes, which I think is on the generous side, I have to say that Manchester City are a good bet to win the final so let's make them the bet of the weekend.

Blackburn may nick a point

If Manchester United still had the title to play for - and I know that mathematically they may still need a point to win their record 19th crown - I might have ignored their trip to Blackburn because there are so many ifs and buts in there.

But United have had a habit of struggling at Ewood Park in recent years and with most of the hard work done, and victory not a necessity, I can see them easing their foot off the accelerator this weekend.

Something about the fixture brings the best out of Blackburn and since they are not completely out of trouble at the bottom of the table yet, I can see them fighting for their lives, as they should have been doing for the whole season, not just the past couple of weeks.

I doubt they have the firepower to actually win the game but I can see them making life tough for United and a point would be more than satisfactory for both sides so let's make the weekend punt the draw, available at 13/5 with bet365.

Liverpool on a roll

Tottenham's season has petered out a little in recent weeks while Liverpool's resurgence has been rewarded in a three-year contract for Kenny Dalglish, with the prospect of a place in the Europa League keeping them going over the final weeks of the season.

Victory over Tottenham at Anfield would secure fifth place and that Europa League spot and I think momentum, home advantage and simply the way they are playing can help them get that win, so they can start the weekend treble at 8/11 with bet365.

Getting wins at this stage of the season when you're desperate for them is never easy and the bottom sides may be disappointed this weekend. You tend to get a lot of draws when relegation-threatened teams clash - they just cannot afford to lose.

That won't help the cause of bottom side West Ham but I think a draw is most likely in their game at second-bottom Wigan, and at 12/5 with bet365 it's a generous price. The same goes for the match between Blackpool, third from bottom, and Bolton, with bet365's offer of 9/4 well worth taking.

Put those three together and if they come in you'll be celebrating winning 19 times your stake, which is not bad at all! Good luck.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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