• England v Sri Lanka - Test series, 2011

England should have too much power

Simon Cambers May 24, 2011

Click here to bet on England v Sri Lanka at bet365

Summer is upon us and that means England playing cricket. Andrew Strauss's team have a busy few months ahead with India on their way over later on but first up they take on an experienced Sri Lanka side in three Tests, starting in Cardiff on May 26.

It's only a few months since England completed their first Ashes victory in Australia since 1986/7 so there should be plenty of confidence in the camp as they begin a packed summer.

An injury to Tim Bresnan is a blow but almost solves a problem in terms of selection and except perhaps for the No 6 batting slot vacated by the retirement from Test cricket of Paul Collingwood, the side now almost picks itself. With Stuart Broad fit again, Strauss and the selectors should know their best XI before they even sit down to discuss it and that can only be a good thing.

All the stats point to England

First things first, though. England at home are a very strong proposition. Not only have they won their past four series - including an Ashes triumph in 2009 - they have won five of the past six and since losing at home to Australia in 2001 they have won 13 of the past 18, with three drawn series and just two defeats.

That is a pretty formidable record by anyone's standards and such is the confidence in the squad and with the management that I would be hugely surprised if they don't get the better of Sri Lanka in the three-Test series. Bet365 clearly agree because they make England 2/5 favourites, with Sri Lanka 13/2 and the drawn series on offer at 7/2.

Sri Lanka drew in England in 2006 and have won on English soil before but with the exception of two victories in Bangladesh, they have not won a Test series of two matches or more since they beat Pakistan back in 2000.

There have been plenty of drawn series in that time but they are hardly prolific winners on the road and again, if you exclude their wins in Bangladesh, they have won just four Tests away from home in their past 13 series.

And now they are without the retired Muttiah Muralitharan and Lasith Malinga, who has quit Test cricket, they are surely going to really struggle to take enough wickets to win matches. That puts an awful lot of pressure on the batsmen, especially Kumar Sangakkara, who is a brilliant player, and that kind of pressure is usually too tough to take.

England, on the other hand, have a settled batting line-up, at least from 1-5, have a good batting wicketkeeper in Matt Prior at 7 and then with Broad, Graeme Swann, James Anderson and probably Chris Tremlett, have a more than decent attack, especially in home conditions.

Such is England's superiority on paper that Bet365 make the 3-0 whitewash just a 7/2 chance. That does sound tempting but you always have to take into account that fickle friend, the British weather. It hasn't rained for ages in the south of England but you can almost certainly guarantee some form of interruption somewhere along the way so it's a risky bet to take on, especially at such a short price.

A 1-0 win is a 5/1 chance but the favourite - and to my mind the most likely outcome - is a 2-0 win, which is on offer at just 5/2. That's pretty stingy but England don't whitewash too many sides, even when they're playing great, so that is probably the best bet. A 2-1 win is on offer at 13/2 but I just don't see Sri Lanka winning a Test.

If you know something I don't and believe that Sri Lanka can win the series then you can get 16/1 on them winning it 1-0, 25/1 on them taking it 2-0 and 50/1 on it being a whitewash in their favour. A 2-1 win is the favourite in their case, at 14/1. A 1-1 draw looks very short at just 5/1 while a 0-0 draw is a 22/1 chance.

I'll have an in-depth look at some of the series batting and bowling markets as and when they come available but for now, take the 5/2 on it being a 2-0 series win for England.

Trott looks rock solid while Prior is the value

Ashes hero Alastair Cook shares favouritism with his captain Andrew Strauss to be the England top-scorer in the series and there are good cases to be made for each. Cook dominated Australia in the Ashes over the winter and Strauss is as good as anyone when he is in form.

Not surprisingly, Cook's average is slightly skewed by his heroics Down Under and he averages just 41 at home compared to 47 overall. But if he takes the form of the winter into the series against a weakened Sri Lanka team then he could be in clover once more.

Strauss tends to play well when his team need him to and can be vulnerable to the swinging ball (admittedly, who isn't?), but the weather in England over the past six weeks means most pitches will assist the batsmen.

However, if you had to put your house on someone hanging around long enough to top-score in a series, Jonathan Trott might just be that man. He is not exciting but he is ruthlessly efficient and moves his feet well against spin, which is pretty much all Sri Lanka have to offer at the moment.

Trott top-scored last summer against Pakistan and Bangladesh and was second behind Cook in Australia. At 7/2, compared to the 10/3 of Strauss and Cook with bet365, he is slightly better value.

If you're looking for even better value then perhaps Matt Prior is the man. The wicket-keeper was in the top three (key for each-way betting) against Pakistan last summer and also at home to West Indies in 2009 and in the Ashes of the same summer. He looks big at 16/1.

For Sri Lanka, who look a team in transition, I have to stick with the class and say that 5/2 on Kumar Sangakkara coming out on top is a good price. He is absolute class and impossible to ignore.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is ESPN.co.uk's betting correspondent

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