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F1 in crisis?

Laurence Edmondson October 30, 2014

Formula One was supposed to be focused on the nail-biting title battle between Mercedes' two star drivers Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg this weekend. It was supposed to be eagerly anticipating the next crucial round of the championship in Austin. It was supposed to be selling itself to the USA in an attempt to finally break one of the biggest sponsorship markets in the world. But instead it rolls into town two wagons short and unable to fulfil its promise of a 20-car grid on Sunday. Instead it arrives in a state of flux with serious questions being asked about its sustainability going forward. Instead the focus will be on who is to blame for the economic failures of its two smallest teams Marussia and Caterham. Sorry America, Formula One has dropped the ball … again.

In form

In a month of bad news for Formula One, one man has given the sport something to smile about. We have seen Lewis Hamilton at his brilliant best, taking four consecutive wins following the disappointment of Belgium when team-mate Nico Rosberg crashed into him. Four-time champion Alain Prost said in Russia that he felt the team dynamic at Mercedes had changed in Hamilton's favour, and mentally team-mate Nico Rosberg appears to have lost his edge. His mistake at the first corner at Sochi highlighted the pressure he is feeling, although his recovery drive showed he is still capable of thinking his way out of trouble. Mathematically this weekend isn't a must-win for Rosberg, but in terms of mind games it is crucial.

Out of form

Russia was Red Bull's worst result since its rather embarrassing home race in Austria. It's no secret that the world champions have lacked power and straight-line speed this season despite having one of the finest chassis on the grid. At some races, such as Spa, it has been able to combat that problem by sacrificing some downforce to cut the car's drag, but in Sochi the trade off could not be made. This weekend should be better for the defending world champions, but Sebastian Vettel will likely start from the pit lane due to a complete change of the power unit. It sums up a disappointing year for Red Bull and intensifies the spotlight on engine-supplier Renault as its weakest link.

One(s) to watch

The US Grand Prix is as close as F1's Mexican drivers get to a home race on the current calendar, and both Sergio Perez and Esteban Gutierrez are out to impress this weekend as they hope to finalise contracts to make sure they are on the grid for the return of the Mexican Grand Prix next year. Perez has had a year of peaks and troughs, but things have evened out in recent races after five consecutive finishes in the points. That has helped him close in on team-mate Nico Hulkenberg, who has already been confirmed for 2015, so a new contract for Perez should not be too far away. Esteban Gutierrez's future appears to be with Sauber, although he claims to have been in serious talks with one other team. His results on track have been far from spectacular, but with the car at his disposal he was never going to be setting the world alight.

Talking points

And then there were nine...
Formula One's grid of 18 cars this weekend is a major concern for the sport. After several years of warnings about costs, the excessive spending in F1 has finally sent its two smallest teams into administration. Marussia and Caterham are two of three new teams that made the grid in 2010 and now all of them have hit the ropes. For HRT (the third team) it was no real surprise, but Caterham had a serious backer in Tony Fernandes and Marussia was run by serious racers in Manor Motorsport. That neither could survive, even after Marussia scored its first points this year, shows that only those willing to spend big can break into F1.

Sauber and Lotus - another two teams on small budgets - have suffered dismal seasons too and both have financial headaches of their own. Williams and Force India have been smaller-team success stories this year, but both have the advantage of a Mercedes engine and Williams has upped its budget this season in pursuit of results.

One suggestion to bolster the grid again is three-car teams - a possibility that could become reality if nobody buys the remains of Marussia or Caterham this year - but F1 would lose a great deal of its variety at the same time. It would also make it even more difficult for the next set of struggling teams further up the grid to succeed, therefore exacerbating the issue rather than solving it. The best answer is some form of budget cap, but that was attempted earlier this year without agreement among the teams or success. It would also be coming several years too late and is complicated by the hugely expensive new power units introduced this season. It's true that F1 is in crisis, but then again, that's hardly news.

Vettel to sit out of qualifying
As if being two teams short wasn't enough of a disappointment for fans in Austin this weekend, it now looks as though world champion Sebastian Vettel will not take part in qualifying. Red Bull is likely to replace his car's entire power unit this weekend due to reliability concerns, which will force him to start from the pit lane. Given that the power unit change will take place between Friday practice and Saturday, it makes no sense to put unnecessary strain on the new components in qualifying only to start from the pits on Sunday. Skipping qualifying will also allow Vettel to choose a race-focused set-up targeted at overtaking. If all goes to plan, the new power unit will last for the final three races meaning Red Bull takes one hit for a better chance of no penalties at the final two races - especially Abu Dhabi which is worth double points.

And still we wait
The driver market has been hanging in limbo ever since world champion Sebastian Vettel announced his departure from Red Bull in Japan. It is a near certainty that he will end up at Ferrari, but until Fernando Alonso and Maranello agree on exactly how to part ways it is not likely to be confirmed. Right now, Ferrari has three of F1's best drivers contracted for 2015 but only two cars to fill. Alonso wants to leave and Ferrari want him to leave, but neither side is willing to lose out in a contractual stand-off that could see the team having to pay Alonso to leave. Once a mutual agreement is reached then Alonso will announce his plans for next season - although, it is still not clear whether that is a drive with McLaren or a year sabbatical.

Weather

The weather looks set to be sunny for all three days of the US Grand Prix. Austin often has cool starts to the day, but after morning fog prevented the medical helicopter from landing last year ahead of first practice, the Friday practice times have been moved back an hour to prevent a repeat. Cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday, but with Pirelli bringing the soft and medium compound tyres to the high-speed Circuit of the Americas, tyre warm-up shouldn't be a major issue.

Betting

Lewis Hamilton is the favourite to win this weekend at 8/13 ahead of team-mate Nico Rosberg at 9/4. But if you're interested in actually getting a return on your stake, you'll need to look at Valtteri Bottas at 11/1 for his maiden win or Daniel Ricciardo at 14/1 to take his fourth of the year. Although it would require a huge upset to the form book, it's interesting to see Kimi Raikkonen at 125/1 for a win and 25/1 for his first podium of the season.

ESPN Prediction

Lewis Hamilton is on a role and has a strong history at the Circuit of the Americas, with an memorable victory at the first race in 2012 and a fourth place finish last year when team-mate Nico Rosberg struggled to ninth.

Laurence Edmondson is deputy editor of ESPNF1

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