• Abu Dhabi GP - Preview

Double jeopardy in the desert

November 20, 2014

So it all comes down to this. Eighteen races of unparalleled dominance from Mercedes has put it on the cusp of a first drivers' championship since the legendary Juan Manuel Fangio in 1955. But which driver that will be remains to be seen. Lewis Hamilton, with ten victories to his name this season, leads the championship and has a 17-point advantage over Nico Rosberg. But that comfortable margin out in front is less so due to the controversial double points format for this year's race - a rule change almost universally loathed by fans and pundits. With a world championship on the line, ESPN looks ahead to the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Championship permutations

The derided double points format means anyone finishing in the top ten will get twice as many points as usual. This means points shall be awarded as 50-36-30-24-20-16-12-8-4-2. The 50 points available may have an impact across both drivers' and constructors' championships, but here's what the title contenders need to happen to be 2014 world champion.

Hamilton needs to finish:

• First or second
• Fifth or better if Rosberg fails to win
• Sixth if Rosberg finishes third or lower
• Eighth if Rosberg does not reach the podium.
• Ninth if Rosberg is not in the top four
• Tenth if Rosberg cannot manage better than sixth

Rosberg needs to finish:

• First if Hamilton is not second
• Second if Hamilton is not in the top five
• Fourth if Hamilton is no higher than ninth
• Fifth if Hamilton is no higher than tenth
• Rosberg cannot wins if he finishes sixth or lower

In form

Both title contenders arrive in good form. Nico Rosberg recorded his first victory since July last time out, holding off his title rival to win the Brazilian Grand Prix. The win means he arrives within 25 points of his team-mate in Abu Dhabi and avoids the charge that he is only in with a chance because of double points. Lewis Hamilton's run of five straight wins came to an end in Brazil but, by finishing second, he limited the damage and ensured he has still been on the podium in every race he has finished this year. Kimi Raikkonen put in his best performance of the season in Brazil and will be looking to finish his rotten return season at Ferrari on a high.

Out of form

Toro Rosso's Daniil Kvyat may be replacing the outgoing world champion Sebastian Vettel at Red Bull but he has not scored a point since August's Belgian Grand Prix. By contrast, in the same time period team-mate Jean-Eric Vergne has collected 11. Sauber is on the verge of finishing a season without a single point for the first time in its 22 seasons, including the four it was known as BMW Sauber.

One to watch

This will be the 266th race of Jenson Button's storied F1 career, but may be the last. Speculation about his future has been rife for the last few months and McLaren's desire to sign Fernando Alonso could mean there is no longer room for the 2009 world champion. Even if there is, Button's motivation to continue racing an uncompetitive car appears to have waned. However he has been in fine form of late and will surely be looking to bow out with a strong result, if indeed that is what he plans to do.

Talking points

The final pieces of the puzzle

McLaren's driver line-up has been a source of fascination for most of the year. With no announcement leading into Abu Dhabi, we now have to wait until December 1 or later for a decision. Fernando Alonso appears to have already signed a deal, with the hold up now about McLaren agonising over whether to retain Jenson Button or Kevin Magnussen. For different reasons both men would be unlucky to be dropped after this season. Earlier in the year McLaren said it was looking for a three-five year plan for its next drivers, suggesting Magnussen is the man it favours for the race seat. The announcement will also give Ferrari the freedom to confirm the worst kept secret in the paddock - the imminent arrival of Sebastian Vettel.

Double trouble

The controversial rule format has been talked about all season and it will surely create a story of some kind on Sunday, even if it has no bearing on the championship battle. So fine are the margins behind Mercedes in both championships that teams across the grid could benefit by throwing caution into the wind slightly - especially the likes of Force India, who really have nothing to lose. If anything that is one of the few positives of double points, but the format has a far bigger list of negatives. Mercedes has already spoken about leading the push to drop double points for 2015, something which does not seem unlikely given its widespread condemnation. However, it's worth remembering the benefactors won't shed many tears over the rule. Rosberg recently said he would not care about winning the title due to double points and so he shouldn't - history remembers the victor first and the scenario second.

The return of team green

Caterham will be racing in Abu Dhabi after it missed the races in the United States and Brazil due to falling into administration. An optimistic crowd-sourcing project was set up by administrators to get the team back to the grid in time for the finale, crucial if the team wants to hang on to its world championship entry - the team's single biggest asset. On one hand, it was a successful venture for the team. It gave Caterham more column inches than Marussia, who went into administration around the same time, and gave fans the chance to feel up close and personal with a team's return to the grid. Fans could even pay to have dinner with one of its drivers for £550, while GP3 driver Alice Powell's family pledged in the hope she could appear for the team during the weekend. Powell had no chance of doing so with such little time to gain a super licence and limited funds but it gave Caterham's recovery added publicity. A cynic would point to the links between the administrators and the CrowdCube website used to raise the money, or say it is a sad state of affairs when fans are expected to bail out a failed Formula One team. Both are fair but, either way, the team will be back on the grid in Abu Dhabi.

Betting

As he has been all season, Lewis Hamilton is favourite to win the title at 1/5. Rosberg has odds of 10/3 to cause an upset and claim his maiden title.

Facts and figures

• Yas Marina hosted F1's first day-night race in 2009 and has remained a part of the calendar every year since.
• Sebastian Vettel has been in a class of his own at Abu Dhabi, with wins in 2009, 2010 (when he won his first title) and 2013. Lewis Hamilton (2011) and Kimi Raikkonen (2012) are the only other winners at Yas Marina.
• Should Vettel fail to win this weekend, he will be the first defending world champion since Jacques Villeneuve in 1998 not to win a race.
• If McLaren and Ferrari both fail to win, it will be the first time both teams have been without a victory in a world championship season since 1980.
• Pirelli is bringing the soft (prime) and super soft (option) tyre compounds to this race.

Weather

There's not much point bringing wet tyres to Abu Dhabi. A race in the desert does not make for a very unpredictable race when it comes to weather, with early forecasts suggesting temperature of 28 degrees Celsius on all three days. As a day/night race, the cooler temperatures of the evenings should make proceedings easier on the tyres, taking away another unpredictable element from the race. Though it gives Abu Dhabi less scope for season-ending drama than Brazil, 2010 proved strategy can play a key part in the outcome of a championship shoot-out at Yas Marina.

ESPN prediction

Lewis Hamilton has been in great form since retirement in Belgium and only failed to win in Brazil after a spin on worn tyres. He should be able to clinch the second place he needs to win the title - even though he will likely go for the win - with Williams unlikely to challenge Mercedes over a race distance.

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