• Malaysian GP Preview

Storm clouds gather in Malaysia

March 26, 2015

Drawing conclusions from the first race of the year is always a risky business. There have been dull opening races throughout the history of F1 and they have not always led to dull seasons of motor racing. In the past when the sport has been written off as a snorefest it has often delivered brilliant racing at the very next round (just think of the Bahrain Grand Prix last year) and in doing so silenced its critics. However, the disappointment this year was as much about the lack of change from 2014 as the quality of the racing. Mercedes' domination shows no signs of fading and that means F1 must again rely on an in-house battle between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg. The next round will come in Malaysia where rain always threatens to shake things up; let's hope the sport gets the thriller it needs.

On Form

Lewis Hamilton looked every bit a two-time champion in Australia. He nailed qualifying - a Rosberg strong point last year - and had pace in reserve during the race according to team boss Toto Wolff. He also maintained his trait of using less fuel than Rosberg, suggesting the German has a lot of thinking to do if he is to find a weak point in the world champion's game. It took Rosberg until the Monaco Grand Prix last year to find Hamilton's weakness and beat him on track, but even with the pressure piled on for the rest of the year it wasn't enough to beat his team-mate to the title.

Out of form

The obvious contender is McLaren, but in truth we've known they have been off the boil since the opening test in Jerez. Instead, the big disappointment from Australia was Red Bull. For all its problems last year, it still won three races and finished second in the championship, but now the very foundations of the team appear to be rotting away. As soon as the track action started in Australia, the bad blood flowed between the team and its engine supplier Renault and the two weeks since have done nothing to ease the tensions (see talking points). Meanwhile, on track one car failed to make the grid while the other finished a lap down and behind a Sauber. It's no wonder Red Bull is so unhappy with F1 at the moment.

One to watch

The two Mercedes drivers may dominate the timing screens this weekend, but focus everywhere else will be on Fernando Alonso. The McLaren driver will return to an F1 car for the first time since his still-unexplained crash in testing. The team has admitted it may never know the real reason behind the accident, but if Alonso does make his expected return to the track it will be a very positive news story for F1. The McLaren-Honda will struggle more in the heat of Malaysia than it did in Australia, but having Alonso will give the team a huge lift as well as making sure every last ounce of performance is extracted from the MP4-30.

Talking points

Civil war at Red Bull
When Red Bull was winning Renault was but a name on the engine cover, but now things are not going so well it is the root of all problems for the former championship-winning team. It's no wonder then that Renault Sport F1 managing director Cyril Abiteboul felt the need to defend the French manufacturer in the press this week, even if his choice of words (calling Adrian Newey a liar) will do nothing to ease relations this week. Before the start of the season there were rumours that Renault may go its own way with a new team and now it's becoming increasingly clear why after it became Red Bull's punching bag at the Australian Grand Prix. Insults don't sell road cars.

Where that leaves Red Bull remains to be seen. It has been working closely with engine guru Mario Illien in an attempt to set Renault back on the right path, but there are also suggestions it could be lining up a new operation altogether to build its own power units. That would be a massive undertaking, but in the past Illien has used his company Ilmor to make engines that are badged (and paid for) by a big automotive brand. It would certainly offer a more cost-effective way of getting into the sport for a car brand than Honda's approach of starting from scratch, but it is by no means a guarantee of success. In the meantime, Renault has committed the cardinal sin in F1 of making a backwards step and has admitted race wins are off the cards this season. Let the insults continue to fly…

The only way is up for McLaren … but maybe not quite yet
McLaren-Honda made a terrible start to its new partnership in Formula One. The car had to run de-tuned and several seconds off the pace just to see the chequered flag, and even with a remarkable rate of attrition at the first race it still failed to score a point. During testing the team set the start of the European season as the point when things should start getting better, meaning this weekend's Malaysian Grand Prix will likely be another test session rather than a points-scoring opportunity. The higher temperatures will do nothing to ease the strain on the fragile Honda power unit, but it will at least offer the team extreme conditions from which to learn as much as they can.

New season, same problems
Just because the teams turned up in Melbourne with new liveries and high hopes doesn't mean the same problems that plagued its smaller outfits have disappeared. In Australia there were two very obvious signs that all is not right in F1, as one team sat out the entire weekend simply trying to get its engines fired up (Manor) while another tried to stop one of its three pay drivers from having its cars impounded. That Sauber managed to finish as strongly as it did was a minor miracle, but one that can be easily traced to the patron saint of Fiorano. Make no mistake, money is as tight as ever at the back of the grid and the sport still needs to make big changes to ensure the unusual sight of 15 cars on the grid at Melbourne does not become the norm.

Facts and stats

• Of the current grid, Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel have the most victories in Sepang, with three apiece. Michael Schumacher is the only other F1 driver to have taken the chequered flag three times in Kuala Lumpur
• After the new A1 Ring, this was the second circuit designed by Hermann Tilke, but the first of the now common "Tilkedromes" to be built from scratch
• Jenson Button has appeared the most times at the Malaysian Grand Prix, taking part in 15 of the 16 races held so far
• The first Malaysian Grand Prix was held in 1962. It was a Formula Two race and was run on the Thomson Road circuit in Singapore under the moniker of the Malayan Grand Prix

Weather

Thunderstorms are never far away at this time of year in Malaysia, but the question is where and when they will strike. There is a 100% chance of rain on qualifying day, but if the rain comes long enough before qualifying the sun will rapidly dry the track surface. One thing is for certain, the heat and humidity will make this weekend's race one of the toughest of the season and requires the drivers to be in tip-top condition. If it remains dry the race will all be about managing tyre degradation, but with just a few rain showrs the show will be spiced up significantly.

Betting

At odds of 1/2, the bookies believe Lewis Hamilton is in a very strong position to make it two from two in 2015, while a Rosberg victory is taking bets at 15/8. After his podium in Australia, Sebastian Vettel has the next best odds at 16/1, while his Ferrari team-mate Kimi Raikkonen, who showed impressive pace until his retirement due to a loose wheel, is tempting as an outside bet (think rainstorm) at 33/1. Fernando Alonso is down at 500/1 to win on his return and to underline the understandable lack of faith in the McLaren-Honda, Jenson Button is 1000/1.

Prediction

It's hard to predict anything other than a Mercedes victory this weekend unless the heavens open at the right time. Hamilton is understandably the bookies favourite, but we are backing Nico Rosberg to step up and strike back with victory this weekend.

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