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Hamilton out to end Brazil hoodoo

November 6, 2014

The last time Lewis Hamilton came to Brazil on the verge of a championship, one of the most dramatic climaxes to an F1 season followed. He cannot secure the 2014 title in Brazil but is currently in the form of his life. However, this is the Englishman's bogey track if ever there was one. Even when he won the title that year in 2008 he did so after passing Timo Glock for fifth at the final corner. Despite it being the scene of his greatest triumph bad things just seem to happen to Hamilton at Interlagos; he has just one podium finish to his name at the circuit. On the other hand, Nico Rosberg knows if he finishes behind his team-mate this weekend he will need to rely on double points in Abu Dhabi to become champion. The stage is perfectly set for a dramatic penultimate round to 2014's gripping title battle.

In form

Not even his hero Ayrton Senna managed five consecutive victories in his storied career but that is what Lewis Hamilton achieved at the US Grand Prix. After his mid-season troubles, Hamilton well and truly has his groove back. His pass on Nico Rosberg in Austin was typical Hamilton and, significantly, exactly the sort of high-pressure move his team-mate failed to pull off in their collision in Belgium. Hamilton looked like the 2014 world champion in Austin and has shown a maturity he did not have in 2007 and 2010, seasons when the title got away from him. Double points or Mercedes' far-from-bulletproof car may throw a spanner in the works but if the unexpected does not happen it is hard to look past Hamilton finishing off the job in style.

Out of form

It's probably just as well Fernando Alonso is leaving Ferrari. Kimi Raikkonen is one of the most naturally gifted drivers of his generation and watching him struggle at Ferrari this year has been painful. He's scored points just once in the last three races and Austin was particularly hard to watch; limping home a distant 13th. But the real concern from a form perspective is Nico Rosberg, whose championship hopes hang in the balance. Ordinarily it would be harsh to call a man who finished second in four of the last five races out of form, but each one has seen him finish behind Hamilton. Rosberg was unable to match Hamilton's pace early in the US Grand Prix and, by the time he had, it was too late for his chances of overhauling the Englishman.  By taking pole in Austin Rosberg demonstrated the fact he isn't going to go down without a fight but the outcome of the championship is no longer in his hands.

One(s) to watch

As a lower downforce track there is no reason to expect Williams to be anywhere but at the head of the pack behind Mercedes this weekend. Given the massive advantage Mercedes has at the moment, it may be battling for scraps on the second row, but we saw Valtteri Bottas get close to taking pole in Sochi. But all attention will be on Willliams' local boys Felipe Massa and Felipe Nasr; one is hoping to add to his solitary podium from 2014, the other arrives in Sao Paulo following news he will link up with Marcus Ericsson at Sauber next season.

Talking points

F1's new deal

Murmurings of a boycott in Austin led to a remarkable mea culpa from Bernie Ecclestone over revenue distribution in F1, the issue which has for so long been the bugbear of the smallest teams. Force India, Lotus and Sauber played down the reports of the boycott to the media but, behind closed doors, the situation concerned CVC Capital Partners, F1's controlling shareholders, enough to personally intervene in the situation. It has emerged company chairman Donald Mackenzie personally phoned Lotus boss Gerard Lopez to ensure the boycott did not go ahead, and now the smaller teams appear to be moving closer to a better deal to ensure their long-term survival. Ecclestone and the FIA are likely to have a hard time bringing Ferrari and Red Bull to the table to break bread with the smaller teams, however, with both steadfastly against, in the words of Marco Mattiacci, "changing the way of how to slice the actual cake". But it's progress, at least, and now that even Ecclestone seems to have woken up to the realities of the situation there is genuine optimism the smaller teams can get a more positive deal.

The future of Fernando

We are no closer to knowing exactly where Fernando Alonso will be driving next season, but one destination is looking increasingly likely now. With nothing to indicate Mercedes and Hamilton will not re-open negotiations post-Abu Dhabi about extending his deal beyond 2015 and Audi denying a link with Alonso for Le Mans or an interest in F1, McLaren now seems to be the only logical destination for him. In truth McLaren has always seemed the favourite, despite his acrimonious exit in 2007, but Alonso's comments to the media in the last few weekends have continued to baffle and amuse journalists. In Austin he said: "I cannot say categorically anything now. I think that there is a very ambitious plan in my head for my future and I think this is the best thing for Ferrari as well. If that happens then people will be very, very excited - as I am. I am extremely happy and all the things in the last two or three months follow exactly the plan that I had." Cryptic comments such as that have fuelled speculation Alonso might be planning something a little unexpected for next year but, as he also pointed out, this decision is likely to determine whether he retires as anything more than a two-time world champion. McLaren has said it will confirm its driver line-up before the finale in Abu Dhabi, meaning it is running out of time to do so. Jenson Button's demeanour recently has gone to a man with nothing to lose; safe in the knowledge he has a 2015 seat or resigned to the fact his F1 career looks set to come to an end. Alonso won both his world titles in Brazil and it may be where we find out the team he plans to challenge for championship number three with.

The back of the grid

There may be light at the end of the tunnel for Caterham, whose administrator said on Wednesday he is "very hopeful" the team will be on the grid for Abu Dhabi. That would suggest attempts to sell the team are proceeding well - a relief for the Caterham employees who have apparently been working at the team's Leafield base for no fee. Things look more uncertain for Marussia, which is on the FIA's entry list for 2015 but pending confirmation from the FIA.  Its inclusion on the list is a positive sign and now both teams have until November 30 to make its payment for entry next year.

Betting

Unsurprisingly given his current form, Lewis Hamilton is favourite at 8/15. The bookies think Sauber's woes will continue in Sao paulo, with Esteban Gutierrez and Adrian Sutil 13/2 favourites to retire first. Anyone thinking Mercedes' reliability issues will resurface can get 11/1 that a Silver Arrows will be the first car out of the race.

Facts and stats

• All the champions on the current grid have secured titles at Interlagos; Fernando Alonso (2005 and 2006), Kimi Raikkonen (2007), Lewis Hamilton (2008), Jenson Button (2009) and Sebastian Vettel (2012).
• Vettel's win at Interlagos last season was equalled multiple records; he matched Alberto Ascari's record of nine consecutive victories and Michael Schumacher's tally of 13 wins in one season.
• Alain Prost is the most successful driver in Brazilian Grand Prix history, with six wins. Michael Schumacher is the most successful at Interlagos with four. Of the current grid Felipe Massa and Vettel have two wins apiece, while Button and Raikkonen have both tasted a single victory at Interlagos.
• Pirelli changed its tyre allocation for this race, to soft and medium, after concerns were raised by some drivers about its original selection of hard and medium.

Weather

You can guarantee unpredictability in Brazil. The weather forecast for this weekend shows an ominous chance of rain - but that does not necessarily mean it will hit the track. Interlagos is famed for the way sunny conditions can turn into thunderous downpours in an instant, so there may be as many eyes looking upwards as there are watching the on-track action on Sunday.

ESPN prediction

Lewis Hamilton has been a class of his own in the last five races but he seems hoodwinked in Brazil, meaning this is the perfect opportunity for Nico Rosberg to end his team-mate's run of victories.

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